A TV interview on April 23, 2014 with Frank Stangenberg Haverkamp, Chairman of the Family Board of Merck by a Taiwanese reporter.
This is an interesting chart that I saw the other day. It summarized the typical psychological events that went through in minds of traders. It shows the mistakes that traders and investors of all skill levels can make.
It could be a viscous journey like this but with a clear plan of why you made decisions and don't let emotion to lead your actions, you will feel better and confident. It takes patience, discipline, and confident executions to make a worth of this journey. No body knows when it's absolute peak or bottom, but who said that you must selling at peak and buying at bottom in order to make a good investment. Set greedy asides and find a path in the middle that you feel comfortable. When most of people become pessimistic, it is the time to shine.
The weekly jobless claims has finally fallen to near 7-year [5/12/2007] low in this month (April 2014). It looks like we are in a turning point that the economy seems to be picking up. However, one must also take a look on the number closely.
1. The weekly number itself is not a good representation since according to some economists that the claims are pretty volatile from week to week.
2. The lower number may be due to the number of people who had become not eligible for filling a claim after a extend period.
The number of claims has been used as one of the most important economic indicators, but the number seems weak at this time. One can see that many politicians are still worried, especially when we still see that senators want to pass a bill that would extend the federally funded extended emergency unemployment benefits to May 31.
The Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, (4/16/2014) predicts that the economic recovery needs another two years with the conditions that central bank must be strong. Keeping the rate low for now is crucial because the labor market is still weak and overall, people still have problem of looking for jobs especially for those long-term unemployed and people working part-time since they are no full time jobs available.
In short, stronger labor market is still needed for keeping the inflation low and for long-term stability of the economy.